THE JIHAD AGAINST HUCKABEE

Dick Morris analyzed several candidate Christmas ads on the the O'Reilly Factor yesterday.  Morris gave high marks to Mike Huckabee for his recent Christmas ad.  He also predicted that Huckabee would win the Republican Iowa Caucus.

 

 

Mike Huckabee had a great interview this morning on the Today Show.  A Time Magazine article referenced his appearance below in a story entitled, "Why Huckabee May Not Fade."  The Today Show video is below as well as an excerpt from the article:

If you watched him on the Today Show this morning, you might have a new appreciation for why Mike Huckabee is surging both in both Iowa and in national polls in the race for the Republican nomination. In an interview with Meredith Viera, Huckabee turned the hubub over the "floating cross" in his Christmas ad into a lament about the absurdity of political correctness and the sullying of Christmas by conventional politicians. He stood by his criticism of President Bush's "arrogant" foreign policy by touting the "Powell-Schwarzkopf doctrine" of overwhelming force. Then he deftly dismissed the GOP establishment's opposition to him with a populist riff that was Edwardsian in both style and content. One money exchange:

Huckabee: The Wall Street-to-Washington axis, this corridor of power, is absolutely, frantically against me. But out there in America, the reason we're number one in the polls is because I'm the guy that doesn't have some offshore mailbox bank account in the Caymans hiding my money. I'm the guy that worked my way up through it. And there are a whole lot of people in America that believe that the president ought to be a servant of the people and ought not to be elected to the ruling class....

Viera: So why do you think they're opposed to you, Governor?

Huckabee: Because they don't control me

A new article in the Baltimore Sun describes Mike Huckabee's recent foreign policy discussion as being closer to Ronald Reagan than George W. Bush.  Frank James points out that Huckabee is doing his level best to channel the spirit of President Ronald Reagan into his campaign.  The recent hiring of Ed Rollins as Huckabee's new national campaign manager is one example.  Rollins was the architect of the 1984 Reagan landslide presidential election of 49 of 50 states.

Huckabee created some headlines over the weekend when the text of his article in the January/February 2008 Foreign Affairs magazine was released.  His full comments can be read here in his article entitled "America's Priorities in the War on Terror: Islamists, Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan."

Here is the beginning excerpt from Huckabeen's essay:

The United States, as the world's only superpower, is less vulnerable to military defeat. But it is more vulnerable to the animosity of other countries. Much like a top high school student, if it is modest about its abilities and achievements, if it is generous in helping others, it is loved. But if it attempts to dominate others, it is despised.

 

American foreign policy needs to change its tone and attitude, open up, and reach out. The Bush administration's arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad. My administration will recognize that the United States' main fight today does not pit us against the world but pits the world against the terrorists. At the same time, my administration will never surrender any of our sovereignty, which is why I was the first presidential candidate to oppose ratification of the Law of the Sea Treaty, which would endanger both our national security and our economic interests.

Frank James in his Baltimore Sun article comments on how Huckabee is actually similar in his policy outline to Reagan and even Bush himself when he ran in 2000:

Huckabee actually sounds a lot like the Year 2000 version of George W. Bush. Remember, it was Bush, then styling himself as a compassionate conservative, who said during the 2000 presidential campaign that America needed a "humble" foreign policy.

Anyway, not long after that, Huckabee veers into what is assuredly Reagan territory, that he opposes the obscure Law of the Sea Treaty. 

Reagan opposed the treaty many conservatives disparagingly refer to as LOST as a threat to U.S. self-determination. By saying he was the first Republican presidential candidate to come out against the treaty, Huckabee is telling conservatives he was the first to see what Reagan saw, hoping that makes him more Reaganesque in their eyes than the other candidates.

This position on LOST actually puts Huckabee to the right of Bush since the president supports the treaty.

Here's another example of Huckabee trying to assume Reagan's mantle. He wants to increase military spending to Reagan-era levels when they were six percent of the gross domestic product versus 3.9 percent today. Again, this goes far beyond anything Bush has tried to achieve, even during a period when he was leading the nation's fight in two wars simultaneously.

Huckabee goes on to take a very Reaganesque view of the use of the U.S. military. He's opposed to nation-building. Bush was too, of course, until he got caught up in the neocon vision to remake Iraq as part of a new domino theory in which the nations of the greater Middle East would tumble towards democracy.

Huckabee writes:

And we must stop using active-duty forces for nation building and return to our policy of using other government agencies to build schools, hospitals, roads, sewage treatment plants, water filtration systems, electrical facilities, and legal and banking systems. We must marshal the goodwill, ingenuity, and power of our governmental and nongovernmental organizations in coordinating and implementing these essential nonmilitary functions.

 

 

 

 

Not that Huckabee disagrees with Bush on every particular. There's no discernible light between Huckabee's position on Iraq and Bush's. Here's a passage from Huckabee's essay that could have just as easily been lifted from a Bush speech:

As president, I will not withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq any faster than General David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander there, recommends. I will bring our troops home based on the conditions on the ground, not the calendar on the wall. It is still too soon to reduce the U.S. counterterrorism mission and pass the torch of security to the Iraqis. If we do not preserve and expand population security, by maintaining the significant number of forces required, we risk losing all our hard-won gains. These are significant but tenuous.

 

 

 

 

 

A new article in the Wall Street Journal is entitled, "Huckabee Taps Renewed Fervor Of Evangelicals".  The story describes a new type of evangelical spirit across America that is aligning with the new Republican frontrunner Mike Huckabee.  Here are a few excerpts below:

Evangelical voters, dispirited with their options in the Republican presidential field for much of the year, are feeling new energy and intensity as they flock to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. And with their support, Mr. Huckabee's campaign is soaring to heights that seemed unimaginable just a month ago.

Mr. Huckabee, a former Baptist pastor who quotes readily from the Bible, is working hard to capitalize on the new evangelical spirit. Among his tools: grass-roots organizing, television advertising and targeted messaging to reach evangelicals. And a growing number of evangelical Republicans have embraced him.

For now, many evangelicals are relishing their revival. "We haven't really had a candidate who represents us, a true conservative -- not one that morphs depending on the circumstances or crowd," says Mrs. Domagalski of South Carolina. "There's been an explosion of people like me who have found Mike. We are so excited about this man."

In a New York Times article today the Republican candidates are said to be scrambling in reaction and response to Governor Mike Huckabee's recent surge in the polls.  This wasn't in their original game plan and they are having to make some audible calls at the line of scrimmage.

Mitt Romney's campaign even used a football analogy in trying to make lemonade out of a sour situation in Iowa compared to just one month ago:

The campaign most immediately threatened by Mr. Huckabee’s rise was that of Mr. Romney. One senior Romney adviser, Ronald C. Kaufman, said of Mr. Huckabee’s campaign, “Am I worried? Of course I am.” But, Mr. Kaufman added, “At the end of the game, you want the ball in Tom Brady's hands, or the mike in Mitt Romney’s hands, and I have faith in our team.”

The problem with this comparison is that Mitt Romney is not 14-0 going into the playoffs.  He thought he was going to be 2-0 or 3-0 starting the primary season, but now may not win his first game and could end up 1-4 before Super Tuesday February 5th.

In the Rudy Giulinai camp they have chosen to spin the Huckabee rise as something that is actually good for his campaign:

The Giuliani campaign professes delight at Mr. Huckabee’s rapid rise, but it could ultimately cost Mr. Giuliani, whose drop in national polls came after news accounts questioned his business dealings and his personal life. Now Mr. Huckabee is essentially tied with Mr. Giuliani in several national polls, which could undermine one of the Giuliani campaign’s central arguments: that he is the strongest Republican candidate nationwide.

One of Mr. Giuliani’s chief political advisers, Anthony V. Carbonetti, dismissed the notion that Mr. Huckabee could politically endanger Mr. Giuliani. 

Giuliani's strategy to sit out Iowa and pay less attention to the early primary states in general is being questioned by many political pundits.  Rudy even scaled back advertising in New Hampshire this week after spending 1.7 million dollars there in the last month, apparently putting his focus on Florida.  One small snafu - new polls show Huckabee in the lead in Florida.  And to think that the Giuliani's staff doesn't think that Huckabee could endanger his campaign.

Fred Thompson is the candidate that has lost the most of his initial fragile support recently to Huckabee.  Starting with his negative attack ad at the CNN YouTube debate and now his sarcastic "apology" over the weekend to Huckabee for pointing out failed policies, Thompson seems the most desperate.

Also in the mix is Mr. Thompson, whose late entrance in the campaign failed to resonate with the conservative voters who are now flocking to Mr. Huckabee. Mr. Thompson sees Iowa as his best chance to get back in the game. So his campaign is moving to Iowa, where it plans two bus tours — starting Monday — that total some 16 days on the road before and after Christmas.

Huckabee is planning an Iowa bus tour also.  One wonders if their paths will cross or if their GPS routes wil overlap.  Imagine a Greyhound bus drag strip race - the problem is that Huckabee left the station a long time ago and Thompson just now figured out he needs to gas up his bus.

John McCain meanwhile has been hanging around but not making much noise in the political headlines positive or negative.  He reacts to the Huckabee surge with a spin analogy from the poker table:

“Mike Huckabee gives us a new deck of cards to play with,” said Mr. McCain’s campaign manger, Rick Davis. “And anything that gives us a new deck of cards is a good thing.”

This seems to be McCain's way of saying that his original strategy wasn't working, so why not just get a whole new deck and see what comes of it.  It's a statement that doesn't show confidence in his campaign as much as hoping to beat the odds in a Las Vegas game of political Texas Hold'em.

Right now all the candidates are just trying to find a way to hold back the continued rise of Huckabee in the polls.

 

 

Governor Mike Huckabee has received praise again for another solid performance in the Iowa Republican debate yesterday in Des Moines.  Today Noam Scheiber in his article in the New Republic gives high marks to both Mitt Romney and Huckabee saying, "Romney brought his A-game. Huckabee was just a little better."  Here is an excerpt from his article today:

And yet… Each time Romney went on one of his goal-mongering rampages, it seemed like Huckabee was there to one-up him--to see Romney’s technocratic optimism and raise him to some new thematic height. Never was this more apparent than after Romney’s romp through his first year in office. “Well, I like the laundry list that everybody's had,” Huckabee said. “The reality is none of that's going to happen until we bring the country back together.” At this point he reached for an Obama-like flourish: “I think the first priority is to be a president of all the United States. … We've got to quit fighting amongst ourselves and start putting the better interests of this nation [first]. If that doesn't happen, we'll get none of these things done.” I later heard some cynics in the press corps sneer at this sentiment. But a Huckabee aide told me the staff collectively swooned when he uttered the line (which, she said, was completely spontaneous), and I suspect Iowans will follow suit.

 

James Pinkerton, a former Reagan campaign worker, writes in an article posted at NewsDay.com today that Mike Huckabee would not be an "easy kill" in a national election if he were to become the Republican nominee.  He is responding to the sensational headline yesterday from DrudgeReport.com - "Dems Hold Fire on Huckabee; See 'Easy Kill' In General Election".  This apparent revelation from an inside Democratic source characterized Huckabee as having a "glass jaw" - easy to break in a national election.

Pinkerton disagrees with this line of thinking about Huckabee.  Here are a few excerpts from his article today:

But it's also possible that the Democrats might have miscalculated the Republican race - certainly plenty of Republicans have done so - and now they are spinning, while reassessing.

It's happened before. Long ago, I worked in Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign. And I well remember Democratic politicos insisting that Reagan was the weakest Republican opponent that Jimmy Carter could face as he sought re-election that year. Was that "psychological warfare" by the Democrats? Or did they really think that the 69-year-old "cowboy" ex-actor - not yet known as "The Great Communicator" - would be the easiest Republican to beat? Probably a little of both.

But we all know this for sure: Reagan carried 44 of 50 states in the election against Carter. So the moral of the story is that predictions from hired-gun spin doctors are not to be trusted. 

Pinkerton goes on to point out in his article that in the last 60 years, 14 out of the last 15 presidential elections have been won by candidates from the "Heartland" of American.  He cites John F. Kennedy's victory in 1960 as the only exception as JFK came from Boston, MA.

Pinkerton ends his commentary with this insight about Huckabee and his ability to win in a general national election:

So Huckabee is an "easy kill"? Don't believe it. He has to get nominated first, and that won't be easy. But if he does, he will be formidable in a general election, just like that other Razorback.

The Heartland wins.

Political Columnist David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register commented that he thought Governor Mike Huckabee was one of the winners from the Republican Iowa debate yesterday:

Huckabee was also a winner. He has surged enough in recent polls of the race in Iowa that he now leads the GOP contest here. None of the other candidates did anything Wednesday to knock him from that position.

He was folksy, warm and conservative, qualities that have helped him win over Iowa Republicans in recent weeks. His performance should firm up the support of caucus activists who are starting to move toward him. By telling the audience he "won't forget where I come from", he cleaved a neat class difference with the more prosperous Romney.

On the CBS Evening News yesterday political correspondent Bob Schieffer made the following comments regarding the recent Huckabee surge in the polls:

"I guess I wouldn't rate it up there with an Old Testament miracle but it is a remarkable thing that happened. I think that Mike Huckabee is for real . . . I think one reason for it, Katie, is each of these frontrunners in the Republican Party, you have a large segment of the party that is against them. A lot of people don't like Rudy Giuliani for one reason. Others don't like Romney for another reason. While those two were sparring and fighting, Huckabee has sort of slipped in there. He makes a good interview. He makes a good appearance on the campaign trail. He seems very real, very authentic. It's very hard not to like him. You can't say that about some of the other Republicans."

Governor Huckabee is on the cover of Newsweek for the December 17th issue with the phrase "Holy Huckabee".  There are several in-depth articles on Huckabee, his campaign and issues and the recent surge in Iowa and the national polls.  A new Newsweek poll has Huckabee at 39% in Iowa compared to only 17% for Mitt Romney.  Below are several links to articles online in this Newsweek issue.

This Is Who Mike Huckabee Is

A New American Holy War

A Pastor's True Calling

Janet Huckabee - Wife Of A Preacher Man

Video - Jon Meacham - Editor of Newsweek Discusses Huckabee Surge

Rich Lowry discusses the recent Huckabee surge in a commentary yesterday in his National Review Online article. He says the most important moment of the campaign came after the Governor's speech at the Values Summit which has since re-ignited passion among social conservatives and evangelicals.  Here is an excerpt below from Lowry's article:

"Part of what seems to be going on with the Huckabee surge is evangelicals sticking their thumbs in the eyes of the chattering class—we're still here, we still matter, and we still care about our signature issues. Remember the lack of excitement in the Republican race, especially among dispirited social conservatives? Well, now there is some excitement, and it isn't over free market economics or the war on terror, but a candidate who doesn't speak compellingly about either of those things but instead about social issues . . .  Now that many evangelicals have a horse in this race, it would be very hard to tell them that not only will their guy not get the nomination, but they'll have to settle for a pro-choicer. I don't know about that, but Huck has certainly trashed about nine months-worth of conventional wisdom on the changing nature of social conservative voters."

Huckabee was received enthusiastically at the Family Research Council's Washington Values Voter Summit on October 20th, 2007.  Since then his rise in the polls may have surprised some evangelical leaders, some of whom just six weeks ago may not of thought that Huckabee had a realistic chance at winning the nomination.